Reds lose 4 run lead

Homer Bailey looked pretty good in the first 5 innings, but then had trouble in the
6th do to some seeing eye hits and three walks on the night. Homer frankly deserved a better fate. The usually golden Francisco Cordero had a poor outing and presto the Reds lose another game 8-5.

Frankly, these games are games that the lowly Reds should lose. Tim Lincecum is not often going to give up 5 runs in the first 3 innings, and the Reds let another golden opportunity slip away. But the Reds should not beat Lincecum, tonight’s starter Barry Zito, or series wrap pitcher Matt Cain. That they took 2 of 3 in San Francisco last week is an anomaly, they will not repeat it. Why? The Reds are batting .241 and that Redlegs fans is dead last in the Major leagues-worse than Pittsburg, worse than Washington. Once again how does Brook Jacoby (and Dick Pole) keep his job?

This team clearly needs change at the coaching staff level. Dusty will not loose his job this year but his long term employment picture darkens. Neither Dick Pole nor Brook Jacoby should be retained.


So who should be gone before spring training next year or hell right after the season ends?

Coaches: Dick Pole, Brook Jacoby
Players: Infielders: Catcher Craig Tatum (batting .121), Infielder Drew Sutton
(batting .167), 3rd baseman Adam Rosales (batting .205)
Outfielders: Willy Taveras (money could be spent elsewhere, better) Kevin Barker (why is he here?)
Pitchers: starters: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo (contracts are almost up): relievers Francisco Cordero and Arthur Rhodes (both are waste on this uncompetitive team, may as well start over).

It going to get much worse, but this team is not close in spite of Bob Castellini’s assertion that it is. Teams that are close do not bat .241 and do not have team era's
of 4.5.

Big D

Not ready for prime time or any other time

All right, I realize that Dusty Baker has been dealt some bad cards, but Dusty is not helping himself any, nor is Walt Jocketty or Bob Castellini. Yesterday the Cincinnati Reds had a line up that was worth 5.7 million dollars and they looked every penny of it. Here's a clue for Dusty, you can not put out a line up where the starting pitcher has a higher batting average than 3 of your God damn starting players!

Drew "the Dumb ass" Sutton is batting second with a mighty .167 average! Why this no good is allowed to profane a Cincinnati Reds uniform any longer is freaking beyond me! Adam Rosales, I am sorry folks who love his hustle, is not going to make it. He is batting a mighty .209 and is the freaking Titanic at 3rd base. Frankly he is Edwin Encarnacion without Edwin’s home runs. Paul Janish is a great defensive shortstop, but is an offensive liability, and part of this weekend Dusty persisted in catching the God awful Craig Tatum who is batting .121, for the love of Christ!

Frankly, it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The Reds are carrying 12 pitchers and that is unheard of even in today’s game. The Reds 2 high priced pitchers Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang have cleared waivers. I expect both to be gone by the first of September. I also would not rule out a trade of Coco Cordero and Arthur Rhodes.

So what will the Reds look like? It’s pretty freaking grim! Johnny Cueto needs a blow. He needs to go back to throwing his change up more, his slider less. Homer Bailey and Justin Lehr are your next 2 starters with Micah Owings coming back off the disabled list. This means that you bring up Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, or Ramon Ramirez maybe all three.

My best instinct tells me that the Reds should keep Rhodes and Cordero, but Harang and Arroyo will go. It is going to be a long rest of the season, bring on the Bengals!


Big D

Gonzo had to go

Alex Gonzalez had to go. This was a clear case of the Reds needing to dump salary. The Reds also sent a hefty pile of coin along, and all they got in return was a guy (Kristopher Negron) so highly regarded he was immediately sent to A ball in Sarasota.

This trade was not about Alex Gonzalez and it was not just the Reds being cheap. What this is about is the 2 top draft choices (pitchers Mike Leake and Brad Boxberger) being unsigned and the deadline being today August 15th. The Reds had to clear some salary away.

Yesterday the Reds 2 high priced starters Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang also cleared waivers. This is a move before trading them. Most teams in contention want these trades concluded by August 31st; the last day that those players traded can be eligible for the current post season play.

It will be interesting to see if the Reds can sigh one or both of their first round picks, but make no mistake the future in now for the Cincinnati Reds. Make no mistake, this core team has failed and dismantling process started last year with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. This year Edwin Encarnacion is traded and now Alex Gonzalez too.

Frankly, that team was too slow, too poor in the field, and too dependant on the home run. The movement of Harang and Arroyo will complete the removal of a core that did not succeed.

Out with the old, in with the new.

Big D

Most interesting things

Some casual fans wonder why even pay attention to the rest of the season, the Reds are out of it, but to a serious fan, this seasons remaining games are part of the beginning of next year.

I think the Reds can safely assume that in Johnny Gomes they have found the power hitting right-handed bat they have long been searching. Gomes swatted 3 home runs two of which were upper deck shots! One begins to look at the outfield for next year and it kind of looks like, Jay Bruce in left, Johnny Gomes in right, and Chris Dickerson in center (assuming that Dusty can remove his head from his rectum on the bases). Would I rather have Juan Pierre in center? Certainly, but the time for that is past.

The most interesting thing was discussed in the pre game show when Jeff Brantley and George Grande discussed the recent conversion of 2007 draft choice Todd Frazier to second base and speculated that Brandon Phillips might be making the move home to his natural position Short-Stop. If this is so then the infield looks like this Votto at first, Rolen at third, Phillips at short, and Frazier maybe at second? This would be a very potent line-up, with Hanigan catching.

This brings us back to pitching. What the Reds should do is break the bank and go get Roy Halladay. The Reds lack a stopper. Edinson Volquez is out for all of next year and this year is not even over yet! Harang and Arroyo have proven they are at best 3 and 4 spot pitchers on a championship team. The future is beginning to look bright For Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. Can Justin Lehr continue to baffle them? I would rather he do that from the number 5 spot in the rotation especially considering that he is pitching in Great American Ball Park.

So how does the Reds rotation look? Neither Johnny nor Homer is ready to set up and be the stopper. Justin Lehr does not have stopper stuff. At the most the Reds only have Harang and Arroyo for next year (then their deals are up) and neither suffices for a top of the rotation arm.

The Reds need a stopper and probably another competent top of the rotation pitcher. If Bob Castellini wants to win, this is what he must start looking for and Roy Halliday is the place to start.


Bog D

Bailey Hurt, the beat (down) goes on for the Reds

Maybe some Voodoo priest cursed Bob Castellini? Did Dusty Baker in some prior life kill a holy man? I heard its bad luck. Three batters into the game Albert Pujols crushes a line drive off Homer baileys ankle/foot and Homer has to leave (x-ray proved to be negative, but Homer later said that it has swollen up to beach ball size (thanks to reds.com.)

This season of bad things happening continues to roll onward to its inglorious conclusion (thank God when it’s over).

Still there are things, important things to do for next year. Michael Leake needs to be signed. Young pitching talent must be evaluated. Sensible deals for Harang and Arroyo must get done. In all, it should be a very busy time for Walt Jocketty and the Reds.

Are the Reds going to keep Harang and Arroyo? Let’s look realistically at their performance. On a contending championship team, by their records, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are fourth and fifth starters. Bronson Arroyo takes the ball every 4th day and breaks even on wins and losses. This makes him an excellent 4th starter for a contending team. He is no more than that!
Harang for the last 2 years has lost more than he’s won. Yes, he can have overpowering stuff, yes he is a great club house guy, but the fact remains that on a contending team, by his record, he is a number 5 starter. He does take the ball every fifth day and he keeps his team in the game-this makes him a number 5 starter on a good team!

A realistic view of the bullpen is also in order. Coco Cordero is wasted on the Reds. Do I want to see him go? Hell, no, same exact thing for Arthur Rhodes. Nick Masset, Danny Herrera, Carlos Fisher, and Kip Wells are simply not ready for prime time relieving. The trades of Josh Roenicke, Robert Manuel, and prospect Zach Stewart is especially troubling unless the Reds keep Rhodes and Cordero.
Jared Burton and Bill Bray are 2 guys the organization needs to decide on now. My best instinct is to release both, same for Mike Lincoln.

What once seemed to be an item of strength has now turned into a glaring weakness. Some important decisions need to be made and need to be made now, Stay tuned!

Big D

How does Chris Dickerson do it?

How does Chris Dickerson do it? He can play the game of major league baseball with his head crammed firmly up his ass! Dusty Baker is frankly, a kindly old gentleman who wants to see his players succeed, who shields them from intense criticism, and deflects some of their underachieving play. Who wouldn’t want to work for a guy like that?

As a fan however these asinine mistakes can no longer be tolerated. To compound his ineptness Dickerson then drops a ball in the outfield. Even kindly old Chris Welsh (the long time Reds color commentator) could not hide his disgust, and why should he?
Justin Lehr at 32 is pitching his heart out for his major league life and succeeding only to have plays made behind him that would not be tolerated on a high school baseball team. Why should this be sugar coated? Adam Rosales takes 4 steps back on a high hopper, for the love of God Adam, charge the damn ball, ever heard of that one?

Frankly, the not ready for prime time Reds team is beginning to wear very thin. The Reds need Rolen back at third. They need Jay Bruce in left. We even need Ramon back at catcher, no knock on Hanigan who has proved he is a big leaguer but Hernandez is the overall better player, even Dusty does not doubt that.

Gotta love the Cards though, they organize a huge Hal McCoy day for the retiring Reds hall of fame writer. There are worse things than losing to the classy Cards. Since the Reds will once again not break .500, go Cardinals, a team that does it the right way with fans that respect the game and its greats, no matter what uniform they play in or team they cover.


Big D

Harang and Arroyo clear waivers, Let the sell off begin!

In a very under publicized move the Cincinnati Reds top 2 profile pitchers (Aaron Harang & Bronson Arroyo) cleared waivers today. Finally, in a season where the Red have been flat out cursed, the Reds finally have looked to the future. Let’s recap the misery.

First Edinson Volquez goes on the disabled list in April and is finally diagnosed with a torn ligament in his elbow and later has Tommy John surgery in August. Edwin Encarnacion goes out for 2 months (and is later traded). Joey Votto is out for an extended stay with an inner ear infection that won’t go away. Jay Bruce breaks his wrist. Entire Scott Rolen via a trade who gets plucked by one of his best buddies in the game (pitcher Jason Marquee an old teammate) Rolen’s still out. Chris Dickerson dislocates his shoulder and will be out an extended time. I forgot Ramon Hernandez who is out until September with a... I can’t remember them all! Johnny Cueto now has a lower body problem and pulls up lame. Willy Taveras, who finally starts going with the bat, crashes into a wall and I really doubt he plays for a few games. I haven't even addressed the bull pen, Mike Lincoln out, Jared Burton in and out, and recently Micah Owings from the staring staff was just placed on the 15 day disabled list.

Can we call Jose Rijo? We better get a whole farm full of goats for this much bad karma! The 2009 Reds team is "Old Yeller" faithful, but it's time to shoot the dog!
The Reds need prospects, Its high time to go get some.


Big D

Here's a clue: TI Dont Lie

My TI don’t lie-the Reds Lose



Back in collage at the University of Dayton, I had a saying, “My TI (calculator), don’t lie.”

Well Reds fans there is not a lot of mystery why the Reds are losing. All you really have to do is take a look at the starting pitching. There is not one starting pitcher who has a winning record except for the injured Edinson Volquez (who may not return for 2 years, if ever). This is a seriously bad sign, why?

Baseball has evolved into a 6 inning game for most teams. After 6 innings the game comes into the hands of Specialists, Set up Men, and Closers. If your team is behind after 6 innings your chances of winning are greatly diminished. Specialists, Set up men, and Closers have those jobs because they are effective at what they do. If they fail to be effective, they lose those jobs, very quickly on good teams. This makes effective starting pitching even more important than in the past.

Enter the Reds, whose first inning ERA hovers around 10! The team ERA hovers around 4.5 which is bad, but that is misleading because the bullpen (which is pretty good) numbers are included. The Reds team ERA for starters is 5 (5.1)! The Reds, however, only score 4 (3.95) runs per game. Looking at it from a macro view this team should probably lose every game it plays even if you took the entire team ERA of 4.5, the Reds are still short a half run per game! Thankfully baseball games happen in the micro and so the Reds will win some games, but overall as a trend this team is short of run production and too long on runs allowed.

Well what to do?

Your Ace is 5-12 coming off a 6-17 performance last year, your number 2 is 10-10 coming off a 15-11 season but over all for his career, he’s a .500 pitcher (your Ace is under .500 at 74-79). This is unacceptable especially when the rest of your starting pitching staff is very, very young. Considering that Volquez may not pitch again, the Reds have only one solution, go out and spend some money in free agency and bring in some better guys to take up the #1 & #2 roles. This is the only quick fix available to Bob Castellini to sign a guy like Roy Halladay if he will come here (and probably one other effective guy) and pray hard that Cueto, Bailey, and Owings continue to develop. Since this is Cincinnati the chances of this are remote.

Failing that, the payroll needs to be trimmed and Harang and Arroyo are big salaries. Willy Taveras has utterly failed as a leadoff hitter, and Alex Gonzalez needs to be replaced.

So Walt go find some pitching prospects this will not get any better until the ERA drops under 5 and the RPG is over the ERA.

Big D

Time to go for the goat

As soon as the ball left the park for a three run home run, I turned to my son and said well that’s it we’ve lost. All it took was a weak single, a hit batter (who dived in front of the ball) and a GABP home run (a ball that flies out of the park that would have been a warning track out almost anywhere else). One simple fact remains, the opposition hits them and the Reds don’t.

Right now the local talking heads have started the ultimate insult question, “Will they lose 100 games?” I am sure the Vegas odds makers are working on this one right now. Right now the Reds are in a struggle to remain out of the bottom with Pittsburg who has frankly gutted their team so much so they are referred to as triple A Pittsburg. Yet still the sad Pirates have as many wins as the Reds. The pathetic Pirates ownership did not promise to bring back “championship baseball.” Frankly, the only team that is clearly worse is made up of former Reds, the pathetic Nationals who will lose a hundred games.

The only reason the reds rallied last night was a GABP home run, and the ineptitude of the Cubs bullpen. What would Lou Pinella give to have the Reds bull pen? Note to Cubby fans, after watching these guys, you have no, zero, none, shot at winning in the post season. The Cubbies bull pen lengthens the game. Teams that are in contention are playing 7 inning games, and when you get into the realm of Specialists, Set up men, and Closers, your chances of rallying to win a game are almost nil. This is what the Mets did, and went hog wild with spending money to do it. The Dodgers are trying to do the same thing, shorten the game. The Reds have in their own limited way gone the same route, play a 6 inning game, and let the bull pen shut them down at the end. Their problem, the Reds can’t score any runs to get ahead. The Reds can’t score runs period.
This is why they lose. Frankly, we need to call old Red Jose Rijo, Jose have you got a goat on hand?

Big D

Well what now!

Well, Now that the 2009 edition of the Cincinnati Reds has stunk up the place and is now hotly contending with the triple A Pirates for worst of the worst in the NL Central, let’s assess the damage and see where we go from here.

Ryan Hanigan seems to provide steady leadership behind the plate. He hits for average, very little power, but has a rocket arm and good defensive skills. Frankly, the Reds could do worse.

Craig Tatum is batting .150; this is unacceptable and he needs to be sent down. I realize that he is only holding Ramon Hernandez’s spot, but certainly someone else could/should be tried.

Frankly, the Reds need Ramon next year. He has provides steady leadership and surprising versatility.

The position of Shortstop, long a bastion of Reds fielding prowess, has become a major joke. The disinterested and ineffective Alex Gonzalez needs to be released after yesterdays screw up. Here is another Red batting less than .200. This no longer can be tolerated.

Dusty Baker seems to have so little faith in Paul Janish that he will not play him in front of a guy who clearly does not want to play baseball, so why is he still here? Trade him away, do it now!

The Reds acquired classy veteran Scott Rolen for the inconsistent and petulant Edwin Encarnacion. It was clear from Encarnacion’s reaction to the trade that he wanted out of Cincinnati. Frankly, not too many Reds fans (or Reds pitchers if you could get them to fess up) are sad to see him go.

The Reds have Rolen for the rest of the year and next, this should buy them some time to shore up 3rd base long term.

Second base is the domain of gold glove winner Brandon Phillips who along with Joey Votto are the only Reds delivering as promised. Both seem very frustrated, and why shouldn’t they? Dusty Baker has done a good job of managing Phillips, who needs it.

Joey Votto should be the first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds for a very long time. The inner ear problem is of some concern however. Hopefully this goes away and does not come back.

Right field seems like it will be occupied by slugger Johnny Gomes. This was a great move by the Reds front office and one of the few nice surprises in a season chock full of unfortunate minefield explosions. Gomes is never going to be a great fielder, he just does not move very well, but he’s not Adam Dunn bad either. He is the right handed power bat that the Reds need.

Left field is Jay Bruce’s position for the next 10 years. Hopefully he rebounds from his wrist injury and a sub par opening campaign. His defense is excellent and his cannon arm is a major deterrent to taking liberties on the base paths.

Center field is another hole in the Reds defense. Willy Taveras is a back up player, nothing more. I had wished that the Reds had completed the trade for Juan Pierre with the Dodgers. Chris Dickerson seems to be a nice player but I remain unconvinced he is a stellar centerfielder.

In all the Reds have some big holes at short and center, not good places to have them. The Reds have some guys that need to go, namely Alex Gonzalez and Willy Taveras (you can add David Weathers to this bunch).

Chris Welsh, the Reds long time color commentator, stated that hitting coach Brook Jacoby is preaching the same gospel as other hitting coaches and it seems that the Reds players are not listening. If this is true, and I believe that it is, this is an indictment of the head coach.

Frankly, these Reds are an embarrassment to the city they represent and the storied history of the franchise. Frankly, Dusty Baker, after yesterdays performance, should have made them line up on the right field line and run gassers. If they are going to make high school team mistakes, then they should take high school team punishment.

Big D

Trade value slowly sinking as well

After Aaron Harang gave up 5 runs (with 2 home runs) in the first inning last night, his trade value probably fell to about a few bats, a doughnut, a coffee maker, and some cash, like about $5.00. Harang is now 5-12 and has not won since May. The Reds are fooling themselves if they think they are going to get top prospects for a pitcher that was 6-17 last year, 5-12 this year and shows no signs of getting any better.

About the only trade bait the Reds have left is the rubber armed Bronson Arroyo, but Arroyo is 10-10 and can at times look awful. He is certainly not a dominant pitcher, and really needs a pitcher friendly ball park to shine.

Bob Castellini has not made up his mind that the Reds are going to be sellers. Maybe Walt Jocketty has clued him into the fact, Mr. Castellini we have very, very little to sell.

Dusty Baker is loath to give up Francisco Cordero, and I agree with him, but David Weathers has shown signs of age and maybe beginning the end of his distinguished career. I personally take bids on Arthur Rhodes but I can understand the argument against trading him. There isn’t really anyone else in the bullpen worth mentioning in this context.

Of the starters, only Johnny Cueto holds any allure. Edinson Volquez is coming back from arm trouble; Micah Owings is a pitcher without an out pitch and is 6-11 with arm trouble. Homer Bailey looks like his is coming into his own, but that is not what clubs looking to make a playoff run are looking for right now. They need proven talent now!

Of the position players, only the basically untouchable Votto and Phillips have much real value. Johnny Gomes is really making his bid to become a bonfire major league slugger, and that is why the Reds should keep him.

A quick perusal of the rest of the Reds batting averages quickly dismisses any of the other players as having any trade value.

Once again the question must be asked: How are Brook Jacoby and Dick Pole keeping their jobs? Their charges are playing abysmal baseball. The answer is they shouldn’t keep their jobs, they should be canned now!

This leads us to Dusty Baker. I am not ready to part with Dusty yet. Dusty has been ham-strung by injuries all year long. Dusty’s performance must improve, however; and it needs to improve next year.

Big D

Say good night Dusty (and the 2009 Reds)

Well as this Reds team slowly slips into oblivion by losing to the only team nearly as inept as they are the San Diego Padres, one wonders who is to blame. Last night the blame can be firmly placed on the manager Dusty Baker.

Baker did not give his team a chance to win by setting the lineup the way he did. He started out with the weak hitting Willy Taveras batting .243, and then followed him with the more inept Alex Gonzalez batting a mighty .205. This top of the order ineptitude is just killing the Reds.

Votto batted in the three spot (as well he should) and Brandon Phillips batted clean up, another mistake. Then Dusty’s mind left his body by batting Edwin Encarnacion ahead of the red hot Johnny Gomes, in fact 2 spots ahead of Gomes because he batted the struggling Lance Nix ahead of Gomes as well. Where is the freaking logic here? Dusty had no choice except to bat Tatum in the 8th spot; he has no other catcher available except for emergency catcher Jerry Hairston Jr.

Overall, the line up Dusty trotted out there was batting .253 (pitcher not counted), which by any major league standard is poor. Dusty had few options, but here are a few that he should have made.

On a team that is this anemic offensively, you can not bat (2nd!), (really can not play, but Dusty has no players left if you put Hairston Jr. in the outfield), Alex Gonzalez. This is compounded by the fact that the catcher is almost an automatic out like any pitcher not named Micah Owings. This team is carrying too many infielders and pitchers. Given the cards he was dealt last night, Dusty should have placed Hairston Jr. in the outfield and tried to play small ball at the top of the lineup with Taveras and Hairston Jr., Gonzalez should have batted 7th. Gomes should have batted 5th instead of Encarnacion and Nix. Drew Stubbs should be brought up from Triple A NOW!!!

By carrying 12 pitchers it seems a move via a trade is imminent. Big league baseball clubs do not carry 12 pitchers. I would imagine that David Weathers would be departing soon. This deal needs to get done because Dusty is ham-strung by this roster.

And now a few words for hitting instructor Brook Jacoby, how the hell are you keeping your job? Jacoby’s batsmen must all meet at Bass Pro Shops, because they all love, dearly love, fishing for breaking balls. It is so obvious that as a major league pitcher why would you even consider throwing the Cincinnati Reds a fastball? The only 2 Reds that even look like they have seen breaking balls before are guys you might want to pitch around anyway (Votto and Phillips). Admittedly Gomes is coming around, but as a big league pitcher you would want to feed breaking balls to Taveras, Gonzalez, Nix (he should never ever see a fastball) Encarnacion (another guy susceptible to even the worst slider or curveball), Tatum (who cant seem to hit anything), and it goes for the injured Jay Bruce, Chris Dickerson, Janish, Rosales, and even Hairston Jr., too. If I am Bob Castellini, Jacoby is in my office, not Dusty’s or even Walt Jocketty's explaining his extremely poor performance to me, and it had better be good!

This Reds team can not score runs on a consistent basis. I know this team and organization does not consider itself out of the race, and good for them and their professionalism, but they can not score runs, they are so hurt, they are done for this year.


Big D

The key to homer Bailey is the further development of his Splitter

The key to Homer Bailey is the further development of his Splitter.

Yes Redleg fans mark it down. The key to Homers baseball career is not his high 90's fastball or his big overhand curve (or development of his slider or a change up). It’s his splitter that will take him where he wants to go. (I suggested this last year on talk radio and was immediately shouted down).

The Pitching Anatomy of Homer Bailey.

Homer Bailey is an extreme example of a drop and drive pitcher. Homer's knee bends and he drives his whole body toward home plate. He must be only about 55 feet away when he delivers the ball. Homer, very much, pitches under the ball which should make his fastball very potent as all his force is going toward home plate. His fastball from his arm slot (waaaay up on top) straight overhand will make his ball "rise" or sail. Even thrown with 2 seams his fastball will not sink much. This makes for a potent high velocity fastball that does not have slot of movement, but when it exploding at you at 97 mph it does not matter. However, when it’s traveling at 89 it’s a sitting duck.

Homers main secondary pitch is a big overhand drop curve. It is useful against both Right and left-hand because his curve drops and has very little lateral movement. (It probably does almost spin at 12-6). This means when Homer really snaps one off, it is going to dive under a lot of bats. However Homers extreme drop and drive does not give him a lot of leverage for a good old fashioned curveball. This translates into: If his mechanics are slightly off, he hangs the pitch (this also happens with his slider as well). Major league batters recognize the spin on a curveball and know that they might be fooled not only by the break but also the change in speed. This leads to many batters deciding to take their chances with the umpire rather than try to hit Homer's hammer.

This is why Homers splitter is so very important. His fastball will not yield ground ball outs nor will his curve. His splitter, delivered at an astonishing 89 mph at times is just what Dick Pole ordered. The splitter dives down and in to a righty and down and away to a lefty almost like a sinking fastball (although it spins differently). Homer's looks like it tumbles at about 11-5 some times 10-6 (which in itself makes batters (and catchers) crazy). It can’t be picked up out of his hand and does not "humpback" like the curve. When thrown right it comes into the plate and dies or dives. This produces some ground ball outs.

A power pitcher "earns" about every out. He throws hard and misses a lot of bats, but power pitchers do not get many 6 pitch innings. Those are the guys who "pitch to contact." Unless Homer hangs his splitter, he will get some cheap ground outs with it. If it dives ala Bruce Sutter all the better, but all it really has to do make the batter top it to the shortstop and the pitch has done it job.

This makes some easy innings for Bailey who seems to be learning how to pitch.
This pitch gives Homer Bailey the chance to produce some ground ball outs. If he can master this pitch, the future is bright indeed!

What is my Bid?

We’ve been through the pitching situation for the Reds and found that much of the staff is trade-able. Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Weathers, and Rhodes are certainly trade material. What about position plays?
There is certainly some work to be done here. Are there any untouchable players on the Reds?


The short answer to that question is no. There are no Price Albert Pujols’ on the Reds, but there are some guys who are very, very close.

The closest thing that the Reds have to an untouchable player has got to be my favorite Canadian Joey Votto. Votto hits for power, hits for average, fields his position as well as his ability allows, and works very hard to improve his game in every facet of baseball. He is also a good club house guy. This is as close a the Reds get, and Walt Jocketty and Bob Castellini need to sign him up long term before offers might become out of hand and out of the Reds reach.

The next person down a rung is Jay Bruce. Bruce’s upside potential is unbelievable. He hits for power, and has a cannon arm in right field. Jay went through some growing pain average wise, but is frankly so talented it is only a mater of time until he terrorizes Big League pitching staffs. He is a definite keeper.

For position players, that is it, Votto and Bruce. Anyone and everyone else can be had for a price. Edwin Encarnacion is an adventure at third and is only signed for 2 years. He does have a power bat but seems like he will give up as many games with his glove as he will win with his bat! Edwin is currently being victimized by every pitcher in the league with a good breaking ball. Why would you ever throw this guy a fastball is beyond me! He is certainly tradable for the right price!

Alex Gonzalez has been injured or away more that many Reds players in recent history, and frankly is a liability with his bat for all his fielding prowess. Frankly if the Reds could move him, do it but I doubt that there will be many takers. Give the job to Paul Janish until a better replacement can be found.

Brandon Phillips would like to be team captain, but team captains do not get bench TWICE for lack of hustle. He is a gold glove talent with a very good bat that hits for power and average. He is also a potent base stealer, but I am done with guys that don’t hustle. If we can get a good trade for him, move him. If no imminent second baseman prospects are available Jerry Hairston will be an adequate fill in.

Right field is platooned now by Johnny Gomes and Lance Nix. Frankly, Dusty Baker should just give the job to Gomes. Gomes is a more talented player, a better fielder, and shows potential to be the right handed thumper the Reds need. Nix is very susceptible to breaking balls thrown from either side pitcher. He waves at them worse than Edwin does.

Willy Taveras was brought in to be a lead off hitter and table setter, and he has frankly stunk up the place. He is under a short term contract that should not be renewed. I would give the job to Chris Dickerson who covers almost as much ground and has a much better arm.

That leaves two other players as Semi–Untouchables: Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. Both guys are young and talented and pretty similar. Both have fastballs that can survive in GABP, an important plus. Volquez has a nasty change up and a dent slider to complete his package, while Cueto has a nasty slider and a decent change up.

This brings me to the most controversial Reds player in a while, totally having to do with his on field performance: Homer Bailey. He of the upper 90’s speed fastball, Homer has done a lot of work to complement this with his slow drop curve, new split-finger fastball, and a decent slider.

Right now Homer is hanging them, every pitch, but he is very, very close to being a huge success. Right now he is losing his skirmishes with big league batters by only a pitch or two. He will get better, he’s 23.

Not much is it? I guess as Reds fans we can take come comfort in that many teams are in the same boat. Cold comfort isn’t it?


Big Dale

And now the Bullpen-Pitching Part 2

Why would you turn strength into a weakness by trading away most of the bullpen? There are two simple words desirability and contract status; I guess that’s three words.

No one is going to want to take on another team’s injured, ill, or underperforming players. You have to offer value to be able to get value in return. The Reds bullpen has been almost as good as promised, and a lot was promised so kudos’ to the front office that brought them here, the pitching coaches, especially Dick Pole, and most of all the player’s themselves. That being said, “Via con Dios.”

This bullpen has value and they are successful which means that they have good trade value. The main 3, Cordero, Weathers, and Rhodes are in the middle of their deals or have short term deals. Since none of those three is a young player, it is time to get some trade value for them.

Francisco “Coco” Cordero has been a great role model for the young Latin players. He has also been a closer well worthy of his All-Star selection; He’s been stellar! Cordero is in the middle of a 4 year 42 million dollars deal and is pitching in his 10 year. At the end of his contract, he will be beginning his 15th year of baseball. The Reds will just be starting to be able to contend if all goes well, but this team has needs that need to be addressed now. Trades for more starting pitching prospects seem to be needed as well as a right handed power bat in the outfield. At this point Cordero’s value is extremely high to a large market contender that needs a closer or premier set-up man. Imagine Cordero setting up someone like the Dodgers Broxton or the Yankees Rivera!


David Weathers has been a great Red. His is definitely showing some signs of age. His deal is up soon. There is some definite interest and the Reds should take advantage.

Arthur Rhodes has been a welcome addition as the left handed specialist who has done much more, sometimes stepping into the setup role and pitching to right handers and succeeding in the endeavor. He has also been a good clubhouse influence which is another reason why its hard to say good bye, but at his age and short term contract status, he is worth the most right now.

All three of these Reds should be traded by the deadline, so too should any deal for Danny Herrera be entertained. The effective specialist has been a good story but his size and mid 80’s fastball do not bode well for a long career.

Make no mistake, who ever the Reds bring in will not seamlessly step into these guys spikes. There will be growing pains.

So who to keep? Well Burton just got back from triple A so he probably has very little value. Josh Roenicke was just sent down to triple A, and Carlos Fisher really just got to the big league club. Nick Masset has carved out a pretty good season for himself, but might be needed as a starter (and he wants to start). Bill Bray is still toiling with Triple A Louisville, and Travis Wood might be worth a look.

Frankly, this team is not ready for a stellar bullpen. At the start of the season I thought it was, but after playing half the season this team has shown itself to be a pretender. I went through the list of untouchable players on this current Reds team and I could only count 4, but that's the next article.

Big Dale

What should the Reds brass do? Part 1 Pitching

With yet another Reds starter going down to injury (Ramon Hernandez, joins Jay Bruce and Edinson Volquez, and Alex Gonzalez), it is time to consider the future of our beloved Cincinnati Reds. There are technically 6 starting pitchers, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, and Micah Owings.

Frankly, Aaron Harang should be lionized by this tow; he is in a league with Anthony Munoz as far as character and charitable work. Baseball, however, is not football and the prospect of any player playing out his entire career with a small market team like the Reds is remote.

As a pitcher, Aaron Harang seems to need a bigger ballpark as he ages. Once dominating Harang has been prone to giving up one big inning and at least one (and very possiblely more) homerun in that bad inning. The Reds are not a team that can afford this type of performance. Pitching in Great American Ball Park must be lights out, and Harang has not been that way since 2007. Harang seems to have lost 3-5 mph on his fastball and some sharpness and depth on his down breaking slider; this is a poor combination. Harang needs to spend some quality time developing a change -up in the next off-season if he is to remain a top of the staff pitcher.

There are managers who would give up a lot to secure Aaron Harang and frankly, the Reds should comply. Harang is a very valuable commodity for some like the Philly’s or Dodgers. The Reds should ask for a power hitting right handed bat or top of the organization power pitching prospects.

I think that all knowledgeable baseball people will agree that Bronson Arroyo does not have top of the rotation type stuff; however, the guy just keeps winning his fair share of games. Frankly, Arroyo is another pitcher that would be better outside GABP than at home. There are games that Bronson will drive team crazy giving up double digit runs and maybe 5 bombs. Other times he looks like the second coming of Bob Lemon mixing his pitches and befuddling hitters. Which pitcher is he? Frankly, he is both. He is also a very valuable commodity, he rarely misses starts, and pitches over 200 innings per year and over the long haul will break even on wins and losses. In a more forgiving park like Dodger stadium he might significantly improve, but GABP is a poor place for Bronson’s home park. Bronson is also very popular, like Harang, but he is also aging. There are always teams looking for a pitcher to get them over the hump and Bronson is the guy who can do it. Once again the Reds should ask for top pitching prospects from any interested teams.

All-Star Edinson Volquez had a poor start to the year and then things got worse with his elbow tendonitis. Frankly, If the Reds are sellers then he should not throw another inning this year. Edinson is a very valuable pitcher who can succeed in GABP do to his overpowering stuff. In the vernacular of our day, he's a keeper.

Johnny Cueto has all-star level stuff. He is young, has brain cramps, (throwing an inside fastball to Prince Fielder with 2 strikes), and top of the rotation stuff! He is a definite keeper. I would personally shut him down at 200 innings not matter what.

Homer Bailey also looks great one night and scary the next. Some of this may have to do with who is umpiring the game. Umpires with small strike zones are not "Homer friendly." Still he has come up with a new very effective split finger pitch and revived his big down breaking curveball, even his slider has improved and he seems to be able to throw them all for strikes on some evenings. Did I mention the upper 90's speed fastball? A nice little option to have in your back pocket, that. After being beaten unmercifully the first few times in the big leagues, Bailey shows a real aversion to losing. In fact, it is safe to say that Bailey get's really ticked off about losing, as a fan I really like that, another definite keeper.

Micah Owings is a pitcher without an out pitch. His fastball tops out around 90 and really does not have much of what pitching pros call Live Ball Factor (LBF). His breaking stuff is worse than ordinary, so much so that throwing it to an opposite side hitter is a sure fire recipe for long ball fun by the Reds opponents. Yet Owings wins games. Owings needs to spend some time with Change-up master Mario Soto, and frankly should talk to Homer about teaching him that split finger pitch he developed (His curve and slider are THAT bad).Still he’s a winner and a keeper.

Uncle D, if you deal Harang and Arroyo that only leaves 4 starting pitchers. (I agree and can add) so for the 5th guy or 4th since I regard Micah as the #5, I would like to see Nick Masset get a shot at starting. His mid 90's heat, and knee buckling curve make him an excellent choice for GABP.

So what is the pitching profile for GABP I keep harping on? Starting pitchers must either be overpowering or ground ball specialists. This in my opinion is all that will work over the course of the year for the Cincinnati Reds. Looking at the 40 man roster, pitcher Matt Maloney shows promise of being a ground ball pitcher ala Tommy John. Robert Manuel also looked good in his stint here.

Frankly there are a number of guys to try and this year should be scraped, but with an eye for the future, the near future, rather than other years pipe dreams. Make no mistake; our Reds are close, very close indeed.

Big D